About · 2026-27

About EasyFPL

Minutes-adjusted expected points for Fantasy Premier League

What EasyFPL does

EasyFPL projects expected points (xP) for every FPL player and uses them to help you plan transfers, captains and chips. It is free, needs no login, and never changes your official FPL team.

How the numbers work

Each xP figure is built in three steps.

Minutes
A dedicated model estimates how long each player is likely to be on the pitch. Every other number scales from that.
Team strength
A Dixon-Coles model gives each side’s expected goals scored and conceded in every fixture, and so its clean-sheet chances.
Player output
Team goals are shared out as player expected goals (xG) and assists (xA). Bonus points and defensive contributions are modelled on top.

Fixture difficulty is a separate rating: aFDR for attackers and dFDR for defenders, from 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest). xP already allows for the fixture through team strength.

xP is a model estimate. It doesn't reproduce the official FPL points or Bonus Points System calculation exactly.