Fixtures

aFDR and dFDR with raw xGS/xGC: 1 is the easiest fixture, 5 is the hardest, based on Dixon-Coles team strength.

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Overall fixture difficulty by team and gameweek

FUL	1.81	2.17	2.65	IPS(A)2.29	HUL(H)1.29	COV(A)1.85	AVL(A)3.07	NEW(H)2.33	MCI(A)4.71
NEW	2.23	2.37	2.65	COV(A)1.85	AVL(H)2.26	CRY(A)2.57	EVE(H)2.29	FUL(A)2.87	ARS(H)3.98
COV	2.37	2.47	2.42	NEW(H)2.33	TOT(A)2.76	FUL(H)2.03	SUN(H)2.13	EVE(A)3.09	CRY(H)1.73
MUN	2.46	2.62	2.64	TOT(H)1.91	LEE(A)3.04	BOU(H)2.43	CHE(A)3.45	AVL(H)2.26	LIV(A)3.94
ARS	2.48	2.54	2.82	LEE(H)2.22	NFO(A)2.94	EVE(H)2.29	LIV(A)3.94	HUL(H)1.29	NEW(A)3.12
CHE	2.48	2.62	2.79	BOU(H)2.43	EVE(A)3.09	TOT(H)1.91	MUN(H)2.67	SUN(A)2.98	LEE(H)2.22
TOT	2.61	2.52	2.52	MUN(A)3.38	COV(H)1.00	CHE(A)3.45	CRY(H)1.73	LEE(A)3.04	IPS(H)1.44
HUL	2.62	2.86	2.70	EVE(H)2.29	FUL(A)2.87	BRE(H)2.71	IPS(H)1.44	ARS(A)5.00	BHA(H)2.93
CRY	2.68	2.80	2.63	NFO(H)2.09	BHA(A)3.61	NEW(H)2.33	TOT(A)2.76	LIV(H)3.19	COV(A)1.85
SUN	2.78	2.59	2.71	BHA(H)2.93	BOU(A)3.19	LEE(H)2.22	COV(A)1.85	CHE(H)2.75	AVL(A)3.07
BRE	2.80	2.82	3.04	AVL(A)3.07	LIV(H)3.19	HUL(A)2.14	NFO(H)2.09	BHA(A)3.61	EVE(H)2.29
MCI	2.82	2.86	2.97	LIV(A)3.94	IPS(H)1.44	AVL(A)3.07	BHA(H)2.93	NFO(A)2.94	FUL(H)2.03
BHA	2.88	3.21	2.90	SUN(A)2.98	CRY(H)1.73	LIV(A)3.94	MCI(A)4.71	BRE(H)2.71	HUL(A)2.14
IPS	2.94	2.68	2.56	FUL(H)2.03	MCI(A)4.71	NFO(H)2.09	HUL(A)2.14	BOU(H)2.43	TOT(A)2.76
NFO	2.95	3.20	3.00	CRY(A)2.57	ARS(H)3.98	IPS(A)2.29	BRE(A)3.42	MCI(H)3.76	BOU(A)3.19
BOU	2.99	2.69	2.77	CHE(A)3.45	SUN(H)2.13	MUN(A)3.38	LEE(H)2.22	IPS(A)2.29	NFO(H)2.09
AVL	3.20	3.00	2.53	BRE(H)2.71	NEW(A)3.12	MCI(H)3.76	FUL(H)2.03	MUN(A)3.38	SUN(H)2.13
EVE	3.30	2.80	2.93	HUL(A)2.14	CHE(H)2.75	ARS(A)5.00	NEW(A)3.12	COV(H)1.00	BRE(A)3.42
LIV	3.37	3.33	3.02	MCI(H)3.76	BRE(A)3.42	BHA(H)2.93	ARS(H)3.98	CRY(A)2.57	MUN(H)2.67
LEE	3.55	3.15	3.03	ARS(A)5.00	MUN(H)2.67	SUN(A)2.98	BOU(A)3.19	TOT(H)1.91	CHE(A)3.45

Use the column header buttons to sort.

How the ratings are built

aFDR uses the opponent's defensive strength and dFDR their attacking strength. Overall FDR combines those underlying difficulties before scaling. Each rating spans 1 to 5 across all 40 opponent and venue combinations, so overall FDR is not simply the average of the two displayed component scores.

1 means easiest and 5 means hardest in the current league. The easier half is stretched evenly; the harder half has a gentle curve that separates the strongest opponents. No club gets a special adjustment. Changing the gameweeks you view does not change a fixture's score, but a model update can move scores when the league's easiest or hardest opponent changes. 3 is a middle difficulty score, not a fixed goal rate or necessarily the league average.

Team strength starts from a Dixon-Coles model of the last five seasons and updates as this season's results come in, adjusted for who each side has actually played. Home advantage is a single league-wide effect rather than a per-team guess, which is why every opponent reads tougher away than at home.

Newly promoted sides start from how promoted teams have actually fared in their first season back, not from a blank average, so they are not flattered before they have played anyone.

Understanding the Split Cells

Each fixture cell shows three pieces of information:

Top-left (aFDR/dFDR): Position-specific difficulty rating (1-5 scale)
Center (opponent): Team abbreviation with @ for away games
Bottom-right (xGS/xGC): Raw expected goals for context

The diagonal split shows two colors - top-left based on FDR (1=green, 5=red), bottom-right based on xG.

Color Scale

FDR colours:

1.0 or less: easiest2.0: easy3.0: moderate4.0: hard5.0 or more: hardest

The colours span the full 1 to 5 rating: green for the easiest fixtures, grey around the middle, and deep red for the hardest. The same score always has the same colour.