Fixtures · 2026-27 · GW11–GW38
Fixtures
aFDR and dFDR with raw xGS/xGC: 1 is the easiest fixture, 5 is the hardest, based on Dixon-Coles team strength.
How to read this
How the ratings are built
aFDR uses the opponent's defensive strength and dFDR their attacking strength. Overall FDR combines those underlying difficulties before scaling. Each rating spans 1 to 5 across all 40 opponent and venue combinations, so overall FDR is not simply the average of the two displayed component scores.
1 means easiest and 5 means hardest in the current league. The easier half is stretched evenly; the harder half has a gentle curve that separates the strongest opponents. No club gets a special adjustment. Changing the gameweeks you view does not change a fixture's score, but a model update can move scores when the league's easiest or hardest opponent changes. 3 is a middle difficulty score, not a fixed goal rate or necessarily the league average.
Team strength starts from a Dixon-Coles model of the last five seasons and updates as this season's results come in, adjusted for who each side has actually played. Home advantage is a single league-wide effect rather than a per-team guess, which is why every opponent reads tougher away than at home.
Newly promoted sides start from how promoted teams have actually fared in their first season back, not from a blank average, so they are not flattered before they have played anyone.
Understanding the split cells
Each fixture cell shows three pieces of information:
- Top-left (aFDR/dFDR): Position-specific difficulty rating (1-5 scale)
- Center (opponent): Team abbreviation with @ for away games
- Bottom-right (xGS/xGC): Raw expected goals for context
The diagonal split shows two colors - top-left based on FDR (1=green, 5=red), bottom-right based on xG.
Color scale
FDR colours:
The colours span the full 1 to 5 rating: green for the easiest fixtures, grey around the middle, and deep red for the hardest. The same score always has the same colour.
Attacking fixtures (aFDR)
aFDR (Attacking Fixture Difficulty Rating)
Measures how hard it is to score goals against each opponent.
How it works: Based on the opponent's defensive strength, plus home advantage. Strong defences = high aFDR (harder to score). Weak defences = low aFDR (easier to score). Away is always the tougher end of the same fixture.
Scale: 1 is the easiest opponent and venue for scoring; 5 is the hardest. Ratings compare all 20 opponents at home and away, with a gentle curve in the harder half to give the toughest fixtures more separation. The xGS shown alongside is your team's expected goals for that fixture.
Defensive fixtures (dFDR)
dFDR (Defensive Fixture Difficulty Rating)
Measures how hard it is to keep a clean sheet against each opponent.
How it works: Based on the opponent's attacking strength, plus home advantage. Strong attacks = high dFDR (harder to keep CS). Weak attacks = low dFDR (easier CS). Away is always the tougher end of the same fixture.
Scale: 1 is the easiest opponent and venue for keeping a clean sheet; 5 is the hardest. Defensive ratings use their own easiest and hardest fixtures, so a team can be tough to score against but easier to keep out. The xGC alongside shows your team's expected goals conceded.